• Number of documents disclosed to the commission: 573,381

  • 98% of those documents came from the Government of Canada

• Pages of documents disclosed to the commission: more than three million

• Number of communities where the commission held public forums: 10

• Number of people who attended public forums: over 600

• Number of people who made a presentation at a public forum: 109

• Number of sites in BC relevant to Fraser River sockeye visited by the Commissioner: 14

• Number of public submissions to the commission: 892

• Number of people who made public submissions to the commission: 810

• Number of participants or groups of participants granted standing in the inquiry: 21

• Number of individuals, groups and organizations represented in those grants of standing: 53

• Interviews conducted by commission counsel: 380

• Number of days of evidentiary hearings: 133

• Number of witnesses at evidentiary hearings: 179

• Number of lawyers or other representatives who appeared before the Commissioner at evidentiary hearings: 95

• Number of exhibits at evidentiary hearings: 2,147

• Number of pages of English transcripts of evidentiary hearings: 14,166

• Number of pages of French translation of transcripts of evidentiary hearings: 16,376

• Number of rulings by the Commissioner: 44

• Amount of disk storage space required for the commission: 4,007 GB

• Number of pages in the Commissioner’s final report in English: 1,191

• Number of pages in the Commissioner’s final report in French: 1,378

Media Contact:

Carla S. Shore

Communications Director, Cohen Commission of Inquiry

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Project description: A veterinary scientist will take a broad view of sockeye diseases and parasites that span the life cycle from egg to adult, and will evaluate the full spectrum of diseases that occur at all life history stages.

Researcher: Dr. Michael Kent is a Professor in the Departments of Microbiology and Biomedical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine at Oregon State University where he studies diseases of importance to wild and cultured fishes. He has previously worked in aquaculture, veterinary medicine, fish health and genetics. His current interests and areas of study are the pathological and physiological effects of transcontinental air pollution on salmonid fishes in high mountain lakes in U.S. National Parks, the impacts of parasites on wild coho salmon from coastal watersheds in Oregon, and effects of pathogens associated with pre-spawning mortality in Chinook salmon.

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This report reviews five viral, six bacterial, four fungal, and 19 parasitic pathogens, and two diseases of unknown cause that are known to or could potentially infect sockeye salmon. The risk of each is assessed based on:

• the known or suspected virulence of the pathogen to Pacific salmon in general, and specifically to sockeye salmon

• the likelihood that the pathogen would be prevalent in the Fraser River or British Columbia

Six pathogens were designated as potential high risk:

• IHN virus

• three bacteria (Vibrio anguillarum, Aeromonas salmonicida, Renibacterium salmoninarum)

• two parasites (Ich – Ichthyophtheirus multifillis and the myxozoan Parvicapsula minibicornis)

The IHN virus is a lethal pathogen to sockeye fry in freshwater. It also occurs in marine waters in BC, and has caused several outbreaks in pen-reared Atlantic salmon. Post-smolt sockeye are less susceptible, but some strains may present more risk to sockeye in the ocean. The three high risk bacterial pathogens are virulent pathogens in both hatcheries and netpens, however BC has not seen outbreaks of these pathogens in wild salmon, including sockeye salmon. In contrast, the two parasites are associated with pre-spawning mortality in sockeye salmon, and the myxozoan Parvicapsula also infects outmigrant smolts.

Six pathogens were designated as potential moderate risk:

• Flavobacterium spp.

• fungi belonging to the genus Saprolegnia

• the fungus-like pathogen Ichthyophonus hoferi

• the PKX myxozoan

• Eubothrium spp. Tapeworms

• sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis and Caligus clemensi)

Flavobacterium and Saprolegnia spp. could cause severe disease if the Fraser River system or marine environment is compromised. Icthyophonus hoferi is of concern as it recently has been increasing in Chinook salmon in the Yukon River. Eubothrium is a tapeworm parasite that has been already shown to compromise wild sockeye when infections are heavy. Recent claims of sea lice killing wild pink salmon in British Columbia warrant investigations on the impact of these pathogens on post-smolt sockeye salmon.

All of these pathogens are endemic to British Columbia and most likely have been present in this area for centuries. Fish are very closely tied to their environment, and thus water quality and other environmental parameters play an important role in their susceptibility and severity of diseases.

There are no firm links between these pathogens and significant declines in wild sockeye populations overall, but some of these pathogens are clearly associated with prespawning mortality in freshwater.

The report recommends more research to obtain better information on the impacts of pathogens on Fraser River sockeye salmon, including surveys for pathogens and diseases in wild sockeye salmon that include proper identification of pathogens, their geographic and host distribution, and their abundance or severity of infection in sockeye salmon and other salmon species.

Project description: This project will evaluate the potential impacts of hatchery and spawning channel disease occurrence and frequency to determine their role in the reductions in Fraser sockeye productivity. If feasible, the researchers will evaluate the role of hatchery diseases in the 2009 run failure as well as the longer-term decline in Fraser sockeye productivity over the past 20 years.

Researchers: The Centre for Coastal Health (CCH) is an independent, non-profit organization whose mission is to identify and understand the interactions of human, animal and environmental health. This is accomplished by undertaking problem-oriented research, risk assessments, research planning, policy development, field investigations, program evaluations, and education. CCH provides objective solutions to health issues and does not take advocacy positions. Scientists from CCH have considerable experience evaluating fish disease in Pacific salmon populations.

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The objectives of this report were to review the scientific literature and disease data and reports from salmon enhancement facilities (hatcheries or spawning channels) to evaluate the ability to assess the risk of diseases present in those facilities. If possible, the researchers would try to evaluate the disease risks arising from salmonid (salmon and/or trout) enhancement facilities in the Fraser River watershed and the Strait of Georgia on Fraser sockeye.

Two methods were used to evaluate the risks from salmon enhancement facilities. The first was a literature review to look for a relationship between diseases caused by salmonid enhancement and Fraser sockeye production. The second method was an examination of data for risk assessment provided by the Cohen Commission, which included salmonid enhancement disease diagnostic data, hatchery-level health records and production data.

There does not exist sufficient published literature to provide enough evidence showing a relationship between diseases associated with salmon enhancement facilities and Fraser sockeye production. It was also not possible to determine from published literature the likelihood of salmon enhancement-associated diseases impacting Fraser River sockeye, the magnitude of possible impacts, or the ability of these facilities to prevent risks.

There does not exist sufficient published literature to provide enough evidence showing a relationship between diseases associated with salmon enhancement facilities and Fraser sockeye production. It was also not possible to determine from published literature the likelihood of salmon enhancement-associated diseases impacting Fraser River sockeye, the magnitude of possible impacts, or the ability of these facilities to prevent risks.

Recommendations

To improve the effectiveness of fish health programs in risk management, the researchers developed 10 main recommendations in the following areas in order to improve hatchery disease management:

• Shift the emphasis and organization of fish programs from diagnostic services for disease treatment to comprehensive health management for health promotion and disease prevention

• Promote a systems perspective that allows for fish disease and population data to be integrated

• Improve auditing and oversight

Project description: The researcher will prepare an inventory of aquatic contaminants in the Fraser River in relation to the distribution of sockeye Conservation units. This will include an evaluation of pulp mill effluent contaminants, non-point source contaminants, endocrine disruptors and other contaminants, including sewage discharges from the Lower Mainland and other urban centres in the Fraser Watershed.

Researcher:

Don MacDonald earned a Bachelor of Science in Zoology while attending UBC and formed MacDonald Environmental Sciences Limited (MESL) in 1989 offering consulting services related to the assessment and management of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. He is internationally recognized as an industry leader in three primary fields of practice: environmental impact assessment, natural resource damage assessment, and ecological risk assessment. Mr. MacDonald has scientific expertise in the fields of environmental chemistry, fishery/forestry interactions, water quality/water use interactions, sediment quality assessment, environmental quality guidelines, ecosystem-based management, ecological risk assessment, and natural resource damage assessment.

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In order to evaluate the potential effects of contaminants on Fraser River sockeye salmon, the researchers developed an inventory of aquatic contaminants for the Fraser River Basin.More than 200 substances of concern were identified that have been or may have been released into the various ecosystems used by Fraser River sockeye.

This study evaluated the potential effects of water-borne contaminants, sediment-associated contaminants, and contaminants that accumulate in fish tissues. Each contaminant was evaluated to determine if its release into the freshwater ecosystems of the watershed caused or substantially contributed to the decline of Fraser River sockeye salmon over the past 20 years or to the poor returns of 2009. In addition, a water quality index was used to evaluate the effects of contaminants acting together.

The results of the study showed that, while metals and phenols were elevated at several locations, they likely did not adversely affect sockeye salmon in the Fraser River. The sediment risk assessment showed that concentrations of iron and nickel were elevatedat a few locations within the basin, but exposure to these contaminants was unlikely to have affected the survival, growth or reproduction of sockeye salmon. Concentrations of selenium and dioxin toxic equivalents were found in salmon eggs at high-enough levels that were likely to affect sockeye salmon reproduction.

A qualitative evaluation was also conducted to look at the potential effects of exposure to endocrine disruptive chemicals (substances that act like hormones in the endocrine system and disrupt the physiologic function of original hormones) or contaminants of emerging concern on Fraser River sockeye.

The report concludes that declines in sockeye salmon abundance over the past 20 years or in 2009 were not likely caused by water-borne contaminants.

While it it is unlikely that exposure to contaminants is the sole cause of the decline in sockeye salmon abundance, there is a strong possibility that exposure to contaminants of concern, endocrine disrupting chemicals, and/or contaminants of emerging concern has contributed to the decline of sockeye salmon abundance in the Fraser River Basin over the past 20 years.

Recommendations

The report suggests future research be directed in areas such as:

• Routine effluent and non-effluent monitoring programs for all industrial sectors to provide the data needed to characterize exposure of sockeye salmon to aquatic contaminants.

• Improved coordination among government agencies and industry to ensure the requisite data are being collected and are compiled into a single database.

• Evaluation of the interactive effects of contaminants (such as endocrine disrupting compounds), disease agents, and/or water temperatures on sockeye salmon during outmigration of smolts and upstream migration of adults.

• A screening survey upstream and downstream of fish processing plants to evaluate the presence of sockeye salmon disease organisms during and following peak salmon processing periods.

Project description: – The researcher will investigate several aspects of Fraser sockeye ecology, including the status of sockeye Conservation Units, a review of industrial and urban impacts on freshwater ecology and salmon life history, and an expert assessment of potential impacts from historical industrial and urban activities on Fraser River sockeye.

Researcher: ESSA Technologies Ltd. is an independent Canadian environmental consulting company headquartered in Vancouver with offices in Toronto and Ottawa. Established in 1979, ESSA has grown to become a world leader in the field of environmental consulting and decision support. The team at ESSA have expertise in fisheries and aquatic sciences, terrestrial ecosystem sciences and ecological modelling, adaptive management, decision analysis, and environmental information systems.

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This report is focused on evaluating changes in freshwater ecology and its role in recent sockeye salmon declines, including the status of sockeye salmon populations and habitats and the impacts of human activities on freshwater habitats.

Status of Conservation Units

The report identified 36 sockeye Conservations Units (CUs) within the Fraser River basin, including 30 lake and six river-type CUs (a CU is defined by the Wild Salmon Policy as “a group of wild salmon sufficiently isolated from other groups that, if lost, is very unlikely to recolonize naturally within an acceptable time frame”).

The researchers found that 17 of the 36 Fraser sockeye CUs have poor population status and are distributed across all run timing groups. Poor population status was determined by a composite index. CUs in this category include:

• Early Stuart run – Early Stuart, Takla/Trembleur

• Early Summer run – Nahatlatch, Anderson, Francois, Taseko, Bowron, Shuswap Complex

• Summer run – Late Stuart, Takla/Trembleur

• Late run– Cultus, Harrison upstream, Lillooet, Seton, Kamloops, Shuswap Complex

• River CUs – Widgeon

The status of 11 CUs is unknown.

The CUs with the greatest relative habitat vulnerability were identified as the Stuart, Takla/Trembleur of the Early Stuart run timing group, Bowron and Fraser from the Early Summer timing group and McKinley from the Summer timing group.

Impact of human activities on freshwater ecology

The researchers assessed six categories of human activities which have the potential to affect sockeye salmon: forestry, mining, hydroelectricity, urbanization upstream of Hope, agriculture and water use.

The level of forest harvesting within the last 15 years is less than 10 per cent of the area of sockeye salmon watersheds. However, the intensity of Mountain Pine Beetle harvesting has seen disturbance in up to 90 per cent of the area in some sockeye salmon watersheds. The impacts of mining on sockeye salmon are likely small and difficult to detect.

For effects from hydroelectricity development, the researchers found that the Bridge/Seton River and Kemano power projects can affect migrations of smolts and adults, but adverse effects have been largely mitigated by flow management and a temperature compliance program in the Nechako River. Independent Power Projects have not had significant impacts on sockeye salmon populations, due primarily to the small number of projects in proximity to spawning grounds or migration corridors.

Urban environments and agriculture have relatively small footprints within watersheds and riparian zones that influence sockeye salmon, though both have the most intense interaction with sockeye migration corridors. In assessing water use, the researchers found that high water demand is associated with the greatest concentrations of people across the Fraser River basin. Migration corridors have the greatest allocation of water through licensing and the greatest density of water allocation restrictions, largely within the agricultural sector. The CUs of the Lower Mainland are located adjacent to areas with the highest water allocations.

The report acknowledges that human activities can have impacts on freshwater habitats, yet concludes that recent patterns of decline in Fraser River sockeye salmon are unlikely related to patterns of human activities in the freshwater environment However, the report also draws attention to weaknesses in existing data collected by government and provincial agencies which limit understanding of the full effects of industrial and urban activities on sockeye salmon habitats.

Recommendations

The protection of freshwater habitat remains important to the conservation of Fraser River sockeye due to their importance in maintaining overall sockeye diversity and resilience. The researchers recommend further study to improve:

• estimates of juvenile abundance, overwinter survival, and mortality during smolt outmigration

• information about the abundance and distribution of small lake and all river CUs

• information on habitats monitored in a consistent manner on a regular basis across a larger number of rivers and nursery lakes

• estimates of the biological consequences of disturbance as a function of increasing stress

• transparency in the science and related decision making

Project description: The researcher will review the marine ecology of Fraser River sockeye salmon to determine whether there are oceanographic factors that can explain the reduction in short-term and long-term Fraser sockeye productivity.

Researcher: The North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) is an intergovernmental scientific organization, established in 1992, whose present members are Canada, Japan, People’s Republic of China, Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, and the United States. The purposes of PICES are to promote and coordinate marine research in the northern North Pacific and adjacent seas; to advance scientific knowledge about the ocean environment, global weather and climate change, living resources and their ecosystems, and the impacts of human activities and to promote the collection and rapid exchange of scientific information on these issues.

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This report reviewed studies of North Pacific Marine ecology and carried out new analyses to understand the conditions in the North Pacific Ocean that may have affected Fraser River sockeye. The researchers aimed to answer:

• Can the decline in Fraser sockeye in 2009 be explained by the conditions the fish experienced in the marine environment?

• Is there evidence for declines in marine productivity or changes in Fraser sockeye distribution that can be associated with the 15 year gradual decrease in Fraser sockeye productivity?

2009 Returns

The research identified the times and locations where extreme conditions in the ocean could potentially have caused extremely low survival of Fraser River sockeye salmon, yet allowed other sockeye populations to have average to good survival. Most of the Fraser River sockeye that did not return in 2009 entered the ocean in 2007, so the researchers analyzed the marine environment from 2007 looking for answers to explain the low 2009 return.

They found that an El Niño during the winter of 2006/07 combined with an unusual spring/summer climate in 2007 conspired to generate an atypical coastal ocean that year – one one that was likely detrimental to Fraser River sockeye salmon growth and survival.

• El Niños tend to intensify Northeast Pacific storms and cause an eastward shift in their path. By late winter, parts of Central BC had extreme snowpacks. A cool spring in 2007 delayed the melt and allowed more snow to accumulate. Rapid warming in late May and an intense spring storm in early June brought heavy rain on top of the deep snow. The end result was extremely high discharge by Central and North Coast rivers in the summer of 2007 that set the stage for a very unusual ocean in Queen Charlotte Strait and Queen Charlotte Sound, the migration route of most juvenile Fraser River sockeye salmon.

• Record high river discharge in the summer of 2007 created a thick surface layer of relatively fresh water to develop along the Central Coast. Being lighter than the saltier water below, it didn’t mix into the cooler deeper water, so the warmer surface layer that summer likely acted like a cap that restricted nutrients and impaired plankton growth, and created an atypical environment through which the Fraser River sockeye smolts had to pass.

• In addition to these oceanic extremes, a very unusual wind pattern developed in the spring and summer of 2007, which coincided with a very late spring plankton bloom. The delayed bloom could have made less food available for migrating sockeye smolts.

• Oceanic conditions were less extreme in the Strait of Georgia and different on the West coast of Vancouver Island, and the U.S. west coast, suggesting that Queen Charlotte Sound is a location where extremes in climate, oceanography and biology could have affected Fraser River sockeye salmon growth and survival.

The delayed spring in Queen Charlotte Sound in 2007, when added to the incremental energetic cost of migrating through a warm surface layer with a potentially reduced food supply in 2007, could have combined to reduce Fraser River sockeye growth and survival leading to much lower returns of Fraser River sockeye in 2009.

Long Term Decline

Identifying the cause of the long term decline begins with understanding the nature of the change in productivity over 15 years. Persistent periods of high and low productivity of Pacific salmon have been reported by scientists since the 1950s. When the median productivity of 16 Fraser River sockeye stocks was examined, there was an abrupt shift to lower productivity (rather than a trend) beginning with the 1992 ocean entry year.

The 1992 ocean entry year for smolts appears to divide a period of high productivity from the beginning of a period of low productivity. This same year saw abrupt declines in sockeye populations in other watersheds such as Rivers Inlet, but the persistence and magnitude of the declines has been variable. While there was a large El Niño that winter, 1992 is not recognized as a year of large-scale climatic change in the North Pacific. On the other hand, the summer of 1992 marked the reappearance of sardines in BC after a 47-year absence, perhaps indicating a fundamental oceanic change that is not yet understood. Marine factors, therefore, may not fully explain this shift to lower productivity.

The timing of this study of Fraser River sockeye salmon abundance in relation to marine ecology allowed an opportunity to make a contrast between the low returns in 2009 and the high returns in 2010. As in 2007, Fraser River sockeye salmon smolts migrated through a relatively warm surface layer in the Strait of Georgia in 2008, but arrived at a coastal ocean that was significantly colder and more Subarctic in character than had been seen on the BC coast in decades. It has been demonstrated that colder ocean temperatures on the B.C. coast are associated with more nutritious forms of zooplankton, which had the potential in 2008 to provide better growth and survival for migrating sockeye smolts.

The favourable ocean combined with a potentially large abundance of sockeye juveniles in 2008 could explain a large return of Fraser River sockeye in 2010, providing that other factors did not affect their growth and survival. If only average marine survival was achieved by Chilko Lake sockeye, for example, it would have produced a return of more than five million adult sockeye to that one lake alone in 2010.

Project description: The researchers will evaluate the linkage between salmon farm operations and Fraser sockeye spawning returns, if any. The researchers will consider the impact on Fraser sockeye of sea lice exposure, farm wastes that affect benthic (collection of organisms living on or in sea or lake bottoms) and pelagic (inhabiting the upper layers of the open sea) habitat quality, Atlantic salmon escapees, and disease.

Researchers:

• Dr. Josh Korman (Project 5A) is a fisheries ecologist with Ecometric Research Inc. who holds both a PhD in Zoology and a Master’s of Science in Biological Oceanography from the University of British Columbia. His research focuses on evaluating effects of flow regulation on salmonid populations in rivers downstream of hydro-electric dams, and in the statistical analysis of fisheries data and fisheries stock assessment.

• Dr. Brendan Connors (Project 5B) is currently a Postdoctoral fellow in the School of Resource & Environmental Management at Simon Fraser University. His research focuses on understanding how natural and human mediated processes interact to shape ecological dynamics. His recent work includes studying disease-mediated interactions between wild and farmed salmon.

• Dr. Donald James Noakes (Project 5C) is a Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics and currently Associate Vice-President, Research and Graduate Studies at Thompson Rivers University. Dr. Noakes has almost 20 years experience working in biological sciences with the Department of Fisheries and Oceans. He has also served on and provided leadership to a number of fisheries science organizations including the North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission, the Science Council of British Columbia’s Fisheries Renewal BC Science Review Panel, and the Aquaculture Collaborative Research and Development Committee. Dr. Noakes’ current research interests include studying the effects of climate change on marine fish populations, early marine survival of Pacific salmon, and socio-economic aspects of natural resource management.

• Dr. Lawrence Dill (Project 5D) is a Professor Emeritus at Simon Fraser University with over 40 years experience in biological sciences. Dr. Dill’s research is on behavioural ecology, specifically the effect of predation risk on foraging and habitat selection behaviours and the influence of adaptive decision making by individuals on population and community characteristics. He served on the BC Pacific Science Forum scientific advisory committee, and co-authored the WWF Salmon Aquaculture Dialogue report on sea lice. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada.

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The issue of interactions between salmon farms and Fraser River sockeye salmon is highly polarized. In response to the unique context of this topic, the commission contracted two reports (5C and 5D) to evaluate the potential impacts of salmon farms. The two researchers were provided with two additional reports intended to provide a common foundation for their investigations. The first report (5A) undertook data synthesis, and the second (5B) performed statistical analysis of these data. The majority of information used in these reports originated from the BC Salmon Farmers Association (BCSFA) and the British Columbia Ministry of Agriculture and Lands (BCMAL).

5A: Summary of Information for Evaluating Impacts of Salmon Farms on Survival of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon

Approximately 70 percent of salmon farm production in BC originates from sites located between the mainland and the east coast of Vancouver Island along the main migratory corridor for Fraser River sockeye. Over the last five years, an average of 32 million fish per year were held in net pens in BC waters, and 91 percent of these fish were Atlantic salmon.

Across all farms between 2003 and 2010, an annual average of 30 fish health events that indicated the presence of active or suspected disease infections was reported by industry. There was a statistically significant declining trend in the number of high risk diseases reported by salmon farms between 2003 and 2010. In the vast majority of audit cases by BCMAL where dead fish from salmon farms were tested, bacterial and viral infections were not found and no sign of disease was observed.

Across all farms between 2003 and 2010, an annual average of 30 fish health events that indicated the presence of active or suspected disease infections was reported by industry. There was a statistically significant declining trend in the number of high risk diseases reported by salmon farms between 2003 and 2010. In the vast majority of audit cases by BCMAL where dead fish from salmon farms were tested, bacterial and viral infections were not found and no sign of disease was observed.

There are only three to five years of overlapping Fraser River sockeye survival and salmon farm data available for statistical evaluation, so inferences from statistical analyses that correlate trends in abundance or survival of Fraser River sockeye with trends in pathogens found in salmon farms are extremely limited.

5B: Examination of relationships between salmon aquaculture and sockeye salmon population dynamics

This report undertook two analyses to examine the relationship between Fraser River sockeye salmon dynamics and salmon aquaculture. In the first set of analyses Connors related the detailed information on salmon aquaculture from project 5A, i.e., high-risk pathogens on farmed salmon, sea louse abundance on farmed salmon, the proportion of farmed fish that died of disease or unknown causes and the number of salmon being raised in salmon farms, to the information on sockeye populations dynamics compiled in the commission’s Technical Report 10. Connors found no statistical support for a relationship between these aquaculture variables and sockeye survival.

However, these analyses were based on short time series of aquaculture variables, beginning no earlier than 2003. Therefore, in the second set of analyses, Connors considered the one dataset that does span the entire Fraser River sockeye time series – the production of farmed salmon by Fisheries and Oceans management area since the early 1980s.

Specifically, Connors related sockeye productivity (the ratio of adult returns to the number of spawners that produced them) to the complete time series of salmon farm production as well as two other variables that have been independently identified as possible contributors to the decline in Fraser sockeye: oceanographic conditions and competition with pink salmon in the North Pacific Ocean. This analysis found a negative association between sockeye productivity and farmed salmon production, sea surface temperature and pink salmon abundance. In addition, the results suggest the negative influence of aquaculture production on sockeye productivity is greater when sea surface temperatures are low and particularly when pink salmon abundance is high. Uncertainty around these estimated effects precluded drawing strong inference from these findings.

5C: Impacts of salmon farms on Fraser River sockeye salmon: results of the Noakes investigation

Farm Salmon Production and Fraser River Sockeye Productivity

The researcher addressed the question of whether farmed salmon production along the main migration path of Fraser River sockeye salmon, the waters between Vancouver Island and the British Columbia mainland has affected sockeye returns over time. Noakes concluded that there is no significant correlation between farmed salmon production and the returns of Fraser River sockeye.

Waste

Salmon farms produce biological and chemical waste in the form of excretions from salmon, unprocessed food, and chemicals associated with salmon farm activities. Noakes found that the scale of potential exposure is inconsistent with the observed declines in productivity and concluded that there is no obvious plausible link or evidence to support a link between the deposit of waste on the sea bed or into the water column and sockeye salmon survival. The impact of waste appears to be limited to the immediate vicinity of the farms (within 30m).

Escapees

Adult and juvenile Atlantic salmon are known to escape from salmon farms, which have the potential to interact with Pacific salmon. Noakes noted that no juvenile Atlantic salmon have ever been observed in the Fraser River and only two adult Atlantic salmon have been found in the Fraser area in the last decade. He concluded that there is no evidence to suggest that escaped Atlantic salmon have contributed to the Fraser sockeye decline in recent years or that escaped Atlantic salmon pose any threat to these stocks.

Sea Lice

Atlantic salmon in farms are primarily infected by two species of sea lice – C. caliigus and L. salmonis – which can act as parasites and potentially interact with sockeye salmon. Noakes has concerns about the interpretation of data from studies examining the relationship between sea lice and Pacific salmon in the Discovery Islands. While recognizing that sockeye are exposed to sea lice, he notes that L. salmonis are not common on juvenile sockeye, and that sockeye are likely able to mount an effective defence against sea lice infections. At these levels of prevalence and abundance, he concludes that it is unlikely that sea lice have a significant lethal or sub-lethal effect on sockeye salmon at the population level. He also found no correlation between sea lice levels (C. caligus or L. salmonis) on farm salmon and the productivity of Fraser River sockeye salmon. Noakes notes that the transfer of disease via a sea lice vector is unlikely to be of significance at a salmon population level.

Disease

Salmon farms can be a source of infections and endemic diseases that infect sockeye salmon. There is a concern that known pathogens found on salmon farms could be directly or indirectly transferred to cause death and/or impair physiological function of Fraser sockeye. Noakes notes that fish health within the industry is closely monitored, and industry and government health reports over the last decade show few cases of high-risk diseases, particularly when viewed at the farm level. All of the diseases found on salmon farms are common in BC and there is no evidence that any exotic pathogens or diseases have been introduced by the salmon farming industry. Examining fish disease data at the individual farm level and on an aggregate scale, Noakes found no correlation between salmon farm production and observed declines in productivity of sockeye salmon.Noakes also has significant concerns about the long-term analyses presented in Project 5B.

5D: Impacts of salmon farms on Fraser River sockeye salmon: results of the Dill investigation

Farm Salmon Production and Fraser River Sockeye Productivity

Dill concluded that the relationship between Fraser sockeye survival and salmon farm production suggests that the farms are having a negative impact on wild salmon productivity, most likely in concert with other factors in the marine environment. However the quantity and quality of the individual farm data available for detailed analysis makes it unfeasible to specify the mechanism(s) responsible, although the most likely candidate is disease transfer.

Waste

The researcher found that the effects of waste from salmon farms will likely be small and localized (i.e. within metres) in part due to high flushing and mixing of waters from the Discovery Islands. Dill concluded that it seems highly unlikely that such local effects could impact Fraser sockeye survival to any great extent. The only possible exception to this might be if invertebrate species that are intermediate hosts of parasites flourish below the farms.

Escapees

Dill concluded that escaped Atlantic salmon are unlikely to pose a significant concern to sockeye through predation or competition. He notes that few Atlantic salmon have been found in the Fraser River basin, their spatial distribution has been limited, and colonization of freshwater areas has been lacking. There is, however, a slight potential for disease transfer to wild sockeye via escaped Atlantic salmon.

Sea Lice

Dill concluded that the science strongly supports a finding that pink salmon in the Broughton Archipelago, and perhaps other salmon species there as well, have been negatively impacted by lice from fish farms. He states that there is evidence that sockeye in areas adjacent to salmon farms in the Discovery Islands are infected with sea lice, which appear to be at higher levels than areas along the North Coast without salmon farms. However, there is no evidence of a direct harmful effect on Fraser sockeye. He notes, though, that lice may still play a role as disease vectors, even if only attached for a short time period before being shed.

Disease

Dill presents evidence that diseases documented on salmon farms can be transferred to sockeye salmon, based on studies that document the abilities of diseases to transfer through the water column or susceptibility of sockeye to infection from other fish. Dill also hypothesises that sockeye can be exposed to pathogens from salmon farms that are transferred through waste from processing plants or the benthic environment, or carried by escapees or sea lice. He concludes that disease transfer from salmon farms is the most likely mechanism of concern that could explain the negative correlation between salmon farm production and sockeye productivity.

Recommendations:

All four reports make recommendations to better understand the relationship between salmon farms and sockeye salmon, including:

• Undertake research on pathogen transmission from farmed to wild salmon, along with evaluations of the fraction of wild fish infected and the additional mortality associated with infection, to determine if cause-and-effect relationships exist between Fraser sockeye returns and pathogens on fish farms.

• Develop a stronger test of the relationship between sockeye dynamics and aquaculture variables to include independent measures of salmon farm variables for each sockeye population.

• Repeat annually the sort of analysis undertaken by the commission (5B) to see if a pattern begins to emerge when more wild sockeye year classes can be included. To this end, create and maintain a single consolidated database of farm production, lice, disease and mortality on a farm-by-farm basis.

• Develop long-term disease monitoring programs for wild fish to provide data to the same level of quality and detail as available from the aquaculture industry. Monitoring should include the abundance and prevalence of sea lice and pathogens of concern for salmon.

• Establish regular and routine monitoring and reporting of water quality and oceanographic data and ensure public access to these data.

Project description: The researchers synthesized information contained in the other Cohen Commission contractors’ technical reports, to address cumulative effects and to evaluate possible causes for the decline of Fraser River sockeye fishery.

As this report was completed before finalization of Technical Reports 1A and 5A, 5B, 5C and 5D, an Addendum was also written to update the conclusions and recommendations of Technical Report 6 based on the findings of these technical reports on hatchery diseases and salmon farms.

Researchers:

ESSA Technologies Ltd. is an independent Canadian environmental consulting company headquartered in Vancouver, with a branch office in Ottawa and staff in Toronto, Victoria and Kelowna. Established in 1979, ESSA has grown to become a world leader in the field of environmental consulting and decision support. The team at ESSA have expertise in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem sciences, ecological modelling, adaptive management, decision analysis, and environmental information systems.

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Based on other Cohen Commission technical reports, this report sought to explain the following five patterns of change in Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye populations:

1. Within the Fraser watershed, 17 of 19 sockeye stocks have shown declines in productivity over the last two decades (with the exception of Harrison and Late Shuswap sockeye). Productivity is the number of mature adults per spawner.

2. Most of 45 non-Fraser stocks examined show a similar recent decrease in productivity.

3. Of the nine Fraser sockeye stocks that are regularly monitored, only Gates sockeye have showed declines in juvenile productivity during the time when the sockeye are resident in freshwater.

4. Productivity decreases extend between the fry and adult phase, suggesting either a productivity reduction in the marine environment or during the period when smolts outmigrate to the ocean.

5. There have been three separate phases of decline since 1950, with the timing of declines varying among stocks. The first occurred in the 1970’s, the second in the mid-1980’s and the third in late-1990’s or early 2000’s.

6. Over the last two decades, en-route mortality (adult salmon mortality during migration) of returning Fraser sockeye spawners has increased.

The report presented conclusions for each life history stage and determined whether a factor was unlikely, possible, likely, or very likely to have been a primary driving factor behind the overall pattern of declining productivity in Fraser sockeye. For one factor where no data were available (pathogens), the report was not able to draw a conclusion on its contribution to observed declines.

Stage 1: Incubation, Emergence and Freshwater Rearing

Factors considered for this stage were forestry, mining, large hydro, urbanization, agriculture, water use, contaminants, density dependent mortality, predators, pathogens and Lower Fraser land use on spawning and rearing habitats. Researchers concluded that with the exception of climate change, it is unlikely that the other factors considered for this stage were the primary drivers behind long-term declines. However, given the absence of data for pathogens, it was not possible to make conclusions on their likelihood of causing the decline.

Stage 2: Smolt Outmigration

The same conclusions were reached for stage 2 as for stage 1.

Stage 3: Coastal Migration and Migration to Rearing Areas

Factors that were considered in this stage were human activities and development, predators, marine conditions and climate change. The evidence presented suggests that sockeye salmon in the Strait of Georgia have little direct exposure to human activities and development, leading to the conclusion that it is unlikely that this factor contributed to the decline of Fraser River sockeye. However, because some important predators appear to be increasing in numbers and some prey are decreasing, it remains possible that predators have contributed to the observed declines in sockeye salmon. It is also very likely that poor marine conditions during the coastal migration life stage in 2007 contributed to the poor returns observed in 2009. Climate change was deemed a likely contributor as well.

Stage 4: Growth in North Pacific and Return to Fraser

The same conclusions were reached for stage 4 as for stage 3.

Stage 5: Migration Back to Spawn

Researchers concluded that it is unlikely that en-route mortality is a primary factor in declining productivity in Fraser sockeye. However, en-route mortality has definitely had a significant impact on the sockeye fishery and the numbers of adult fish reaching spawning grounds. Pre-spawn mortality (premature mortality on spawning grounds), habitat changes and contaminants are unlikely to be responsible for the overall pattern of declining sockeye stocks.

Recommendations:

The report has highlighted the need for:

• Improved information on potential stressors affecting sockeye along their migratory path from the mouth of the Fraser through Queen Charlotte Sound.

• A coordinated, multi-agency collection of data on sockeye stock abundance, survival and stressors for each life history stage.

• The development of an integrated database and cumulative assessments both within and across multiple life history stages.

• Transparent dissemination of information annually to scientists and non-scientists.

Addendum:

The Addendum to this report reviewed the implications of Technical Reports 1A (Hatchery Disease Impact Assessment) and 5 (Impacts of salmon farms on Fraser River sockeye salmon) on the cumulative impacts analysis. Note that because the issue of interactions between salmon farms and sockeye salmon is highly polarized, the Cohen Commission contracted two reports to evaluate the potential impacts of salmon farms. The two authors (Noakes {Technical Report 5C} and Dill {Technical Report 5D}) were provided with a report synthesizing the data complied specifically for this project (Korman, Technical Report 5A) and a report performing statistical analyses of these data (Connors, Technical Report 5B).

An evaluation of these reports did not add any further factors to the cumulative impact analysis that were likely to have been primary factors in Fraser sockeye declines. The researchers did note that diseases of salmon farm origin are a possible factor (based on the report by Dill) or unlikely (based on the report by Noakes). However both reports judged them to have been unlikely as primary causes of long term productivity declines, though they may still have been contributory factors. Waste, escapees and sea lice from the operations of salmon farms are unlikely to have been primary factors in the observed declines. Diseases of hatchery origin were judged as no conclusion possible due to insufficient data on how these affect salmon sockeye populations.

Project description: The researcher will investigate Fraser River sockeye fisheries harvesting (First Nations, commercial and recreational) and fisheries management (pre-season forecasting, in-season and post-season run-size abundance estimation methods and escapement enumeration methods), will analyze historical performance of the in-season assessment process, will evaluate the scientific basis for determining escapement targets, will evaluate the extent of any over-harvesting since 1985, and will summarize the current conservation status of the Cultus Lake sockeye population. The researchers will also compile information related to the Bristol Bay, Alaska sockeye fishery and compare its sockeye harvesting practices and fisheries management with those in the Fraser River.

Researcher: LGL Limited is one of North America’s leading ecological research companies with expertise in a broad range of disciplines, such as birds, mammals (terrestrial and marine), reptiles, amphibians, fish and invertebrates; freshwater, marine, terrestrial and wetland ecology; habitat assessment, disturbance effects; environmental assessment; ecological restoration; monitoring; geology; environmental planning; GIS and data analysis.

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Fisheries Review and Management

This report reviews fisheries for Fraser sockeye including commercial, recreational and First Nations fisheries and offers a functional description of fisheries management for Fraser River sockeye.

Fisheries Harvesting and Catch Monitoring

A complicated system of managing catches in First Nations Food, Social and Ceremonial fisheries has been developed to annually allocate 1,030,000 Fraser sockeye in marine areas, as well as in the Lower and Upper Fraser River. An important recreational fishery for sockeye occurs in non-tidal areas of the Fraser. A review of commercial catch estimates found limited documentation for Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s (DFO) catch monitoring program, few estimates of precision and minimal verification at landing sites for most Canadian commercial fisheries. The researchers concluded that this leaves substantial room for improvement in the commercial catch monitoring programs.

Non-retention Fisheries

The researchers examined non-retention fisheries, meaning those fish caught and released and those fish that encounter fishing gear but escape capture. The largest en-route losses occur at times and locations where upstream migrating sockeye are stressed by a combination of elevated water temperature, in-river fisheries and difficult passage points. It may be possible to minimize such effects by changing the timing and location of in-river fisheries away from these stressors.

Forecasting

Pre-season forecasts explained 60% of the year-to-year variation in Fraser sockeye returns between 1980 and 2009. The recognized challenges with forecasting salmon returns have led most managers to rely on in-season information to manage sockeye fisheries. The accuracy and precision of inseason run size estimates vary through the season and between the different run-timing groups (Early Stuart, Early Summer, Summer-run, and Late-run stocks). In general, in-season forecasts have been sufficiently accurate, precise, and timely to make the necessary management decisions to achieve harvest rate goals defined for each of the four run-timing groups.

Escapement

Post-season escapement estimates are much more reliable than in-season estimates for Fraser sockeye. Virtually every type of enumeration method used to estimate escapement for salmon has been used or tested in the Fraser watershed for Fraser sockeye. The methods currently used are appropriate and the best of the available alternatives for Fraser sockeye.

To define escapement targets, the methods were relatively simple from 1987-2002, more complex from 2004-2010 and are destined to become more complex in the future as Wild Salmon Policy benchmarks are identified for each sockeye Conservation Unit. The large year-to-year variability in escapement targets makes it difficult to regulate fisheries and evaluate management performance. A clearly defined set of escapement goals for each run-timing group and indicator stock would be easier to communicate to fishers than the current complex system. These escapement goals would still allow managers the latitude to implement harvest rate ceilings to protect less productive stocks when returns of the target stocks are large.

Low escapement benchmarks have been defined for each Fraser sockeye indicator stock and runtiming group. For three of the four run-timing groups, escapements to spawning areas have been consistently above the benchmarks. Escapements for the Early Stuart timing group fell below its lower benchmark goal from 2005-09 but no commercial fisheries have been permitted to target early run-timing group in these years. Some harvesting of Early Stuart sockeye has been permitted in middle and upper Fraser First Nations fisheries. Escapement of all summer-run stocks declined rapidly from 2003 to 2009 and most sockeye fisheries were closed from 2007-09 to maximize escapements for these stocks. Within the Early Summer and Late-run timing groups, two stocks (Bowron and Cultus) have been consistently below their benchmarks in recent years.

Abundance

For most salmon stocks, total abundance is estimated by adding together catch and escapement. For Fraser sockeye, en-route losses (not accounted for in the catch and escapement estimates) can, on occasion, exceed 90% of fish that did enter the Fraser River. The location, timing, and magnitude of these en-route losses are critical for estimating total abundance and exploitation rates for Fraser sockeye.

Based on available estimates of abundance and exploitation rates, it is likely that overharvesting occurred for Early Stuart sockeye between 1984 and 2000 and for Early Summer-run sockeye from 1960-1989. No evidence of overharvesting was detected for the other two run-timing groups as a whole but there is clear evidence that at least one component of the Late-run group (Cultus Lake sockeye) was overharvested during the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Progress has been made on reducing predator abundance in Cultus Lake, reducing harvest rates on Cultus adult sockeye and increasing smolt production through hatchery supplementation efforts, but these have not resulted in meeting defined recovery objectives for the population. Given the uncertainties, these actions need to be considered ‘experimental’ and thus require ongoing and rigorous monitoring programs.

Bristol Bay

This report also discusses and develops conclusions about the differences and similarities in sockeye fisheries management practices in the Fraser River and Bristol Bay sockeye fisheries. Relative to most sockeye stocks, the river-specific catch and escapement information from Bristol Bay is some of the most accurate and precise in salmon biology today. The substantial differences between the Fraser River and Bristol Bay fisheries make many of the approaches used in Bristol Bay inappropriate for Fraser sockeye stocks and fisheries. One aspect of the Bristol Bay fisheries that should be considered seriously for application to the Fraser is the clarity and priority associated with sockeye escapement goals. A clearly defined set of escapement goals for Fraser sockeye would not guarantee success but is one way that the management of Fraser sockeye stocks could be made simpler and increase the potential for achieving these escapement goals.

Project description: The researchers will prepare a description of predation on sockeye salmon across the geographical range of the population. The contractor will evaluate freshwater fish predation on alevins, fry and smolts; marine fish predation on smolts, sub-adults and adults; and marine mammal predation on smolts and adults.

Researchers:

Dr. Andrew Trites is a Professor and Director of the Marine Mammal Research Unit, Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia (UBC), and Research Director for the North Pacific Universities Marine Mammal Research Consortium, Fisheries Centre, UBC. His main area of research is the interaction between marine mammals and commercial fisheries. This includes the population biology and bioenergetics of seals, sea lions and whales, and involves a combination of field, captive and computer studies (data analysis and simulation modeling).

Dr. Villy Christensen is Professor at the UBC Fisheries Centre, and Director of the NF-UBC Nereus – Predicting the Future Ocean program. He works with ecosystem-based management and has a background in fisheries research. His research since 1990 has centered on understanding how human exploitation impacts marine ecosystems, and utilizes ecosystem modeling as the main tool. Dr. Christensen is a specialist on predator-prey interactions and dynamics, and is the key developer of the Ecopath with Ecosim food web modeling approach, which is the most-widely ecosystem modeling approach for fisheries management throughout the world.

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The report provides an overview of the current knowledge about potential predators of sockeye salmon and their impact across all Fraser River sockeye salmon stocks. The report also summarizes what is currently known about the role of predation by fish, birds and mammals on sockeye eggs, alevins, fry, and smolt in freshwater as well as on smolt, immature and maturing sockeye in marine systems.

Potential predators

The report evaluated the risk from suspected predators that Fraser River sockeye salmon may have come across as they moved from streams, lakes and rivers to the Strait of Georgia, north to Queen Charlotte Sound and out to the open North Pacific Ocean.

Examples of potential predators on Fraser River sockeye:

Avian Predators	Invertebrates	Marine Mammals
Caspian Terns	Humboldt squid	Seals (Harbour and Northern fur)
Double-crested Cormorants		Sea lions (California)
		Killer whales
		Pacific white-sided dolphins
Marine Fish Predators	Freshwater Fish Predators
Sablefish	Coastal cutthroat trout
Daggertooth	Rainbow trout
Lamprey (Fraser River and Estuary)	Coho salmon
Spiny dogfish	Chinook salmon
Salmon shark	Yellow perch

Previously abundant non-salmonid (fish other than salmon or trout) prey species such as walleye pollock and Pacific cod in the Gulf of Alaska, Pacific mackerel, and Pacific hake have declined. This change could have led to increased predation pressure on sockeye, but there is a lack of data to prove this possibility.

Seal and sea lion populations have increased significantly in British Columbia and southeast Alaska since the late 1970s, but existing data indicates that sockeye salmon is not a preferred prey species for these marine mammals.

There was no indication that any individual mammal predator targeted sockeye or that any of them consumed sufficient numbers to pose a threat to the population. The report concludes that there was no single predator that may have caused the decline of the Fraser River sockeye. Instead, predation is more likely to be part of the cumulative threats facing sockeye.

Cumulative predation effects

Cumulative threats are far more difficult to evaluate than a single factor. Stress from higher water temperatures and running the gauntlet through predators, whose alternative prey may have diminished, may all have had cumulative effects. Assessing the cumulative effects of these and other stresses will require integrated evaluation, but information about ecosystem resources and interactions is not available. The report concludes that there is little to no information to evaluate the cumulative effect of predation on Fraser River sockeye salmon with certainty.

Project description: The researchers will compile and review all published evidence for climate change and climate-related effects on sockeye salmon in freshwater and marine habitats across all life stages, looking specifically for evidence of the effects of climate-related variables such as temperature, flow, salinity, pH, currents, primary productivity and species interactions on Fraser River sockeye survival. Researchers will also look at adult mortality during river migration and on spawning grounds.

Researchers:

Dr. Scott Hinch is a professor of fish ecology and conservation in the Department of Forest Sciences at the University of British Columbia (UBC). He currently teaches courses in aquatic ecology, salmon biology and fish conservation. He received BSc and MSc degrees from the University of Western Ontario, and a PhD from the University of Toronto in 1992. He began at UBC as a postdoctoral fellow and joined the professoriate in 1994. Over the past 20 years, he has investigated hypotheses about the role that environmental conditions have on salmon migration survival, behaviour, energetics, and physiology. He has also lead several long -term field experiments examining riparian timber harvest effects on stream temperature and habitat, fish abundance, growth, energetics, movements and habitat use.

Dr. Eduardo Martins is a post-doctoral fellow in UBC’s Department of Forest Sciences. He was senior author of a report on the effects of river temperature and climate warming on stock-specific survival of adult migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon. He recently attended the International Symposium on Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries in Sendai, Japan where he delivered a paper on effects of river temperature and climate warming on Fraser sockeye.

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Effect of climate change on sockeye survival

The report offers a qualitative assessment about how likely climate change over the past 20 years has affected survival in each stage of the sockeye’s life. The report concludes that:

• survival of eggs has possibly increased (but not in all stocks)

• survival of alevins has unlikely changed

• survival of fry in lakes has possibly decreased

• survival of smolts and postsmolts has likely decreased

• survival of immatures in the ocean has possibly decreased

• survival of returning adults has very likely decreased (but not in all stocks)

• once on the spawning grounds, survival to spawn has possibly decreased (but not in all stocks)

This assessment suggests that climate change may have adversely affected survival of Fraser River sockeye salmon and therefore has possibly contributed to the declining abundance and productivity over the past 20 years.

It is also likely that inter-annual variability in climate conditions has contributed to the extreme disparity in abundance of returning adults in 2009 and 2010. Sea surface temperatures were unusually warm in 2007, then relatively cooler in 2008, the years that those cohorts went to sea.

Adult mortality during river migration and on spawning grounds

Warming river temperatures have been one of the largest environmental challenges that migrating adult Fraser sockeye have had to deal with over the past 20 years. The Fraser River is now about two degrees warmer in the summer compared to 60 years ago. Much of that warming has occurred within the last 20 years. Water temperatures in 13 of the last 20 summers have been the warmest on record. Since 1995, Late-run sockeye stocks have been entering the Fraser River three to six weeks earlier than normal, where they encounter temperatures up to five degrees warmer than they once encountered, and they are spending longer in freshwater because spawning migration dates have not changed.

En route loss (an index of levels of salmon that may die in fresh water during their migration to the spawning grounds) has been increasing, with recent years having some the relatively highest levels, especially for Early Stuart and Late-run timing groups of Fraser sockeye. For a majority of stocks, en route loss exceeded 50 per cent for more than half the years between 1996 and 2008. En route mortality, which has been assessed with telemetry research, has revealed stock-specific patterns likely related to thermal tolerance. Laboratory research confirms that Summer-runs have the greatest tolerance for rising temperatures, and early migrating Late-run stocks are particularly poor at dealing with high temperatures and they are also exposed to freshwater diseases for prolonged periods as they now reside longer in fresh water.

En route and pre-spawn mortality (salmon that survive to the spawning grounds but die before they successfully deposit all of their eggs) in adult sockeye salmon are significant factors that reduce the number of effective female spawners, and may pose a risk to the long-term viability of some Fraser River sockeye stocks.

Recommendations

The report suggests future research be directed in areas such as:

• Electronic tagging and experimentally exposing fish to varying temperature, salinity, pH or parasites to better understand marine survival, predict en route and pre-spawn mortality, and stress-related mortality.

• Field-based research on early life stages in freshwater.

• Better assess the extent and consequences of stock and gender differences in survival of migrating adult sockeye.

• Research examining cumulative impacts, carry-over effects and effects among generations.

• Climate change modeling to quantify the impact of climate warming on future trends in Fraser sockeye productivity and abundance.

Project description: The researchers conducted basic statistical analyses of data on sockeye salmon abundance and productivity (the number of adult returns produced per spawner). They reviewed previous research on sockeye cyclic dominance and density-dependence, including Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye populations. They also summarized the frequency and effects of over-escapement on subsequent productivity and abundance of adult recruits.

Researchers:

Dr. Randall Peterman is a Professor in the School of Resource and Environmental Management at Simon Fraser University. He holds a Canada Research Chair in Fisheries Risk Assessment and Management and has been Director of the Cooperative Resource Management Institute. His research focuses on quantitative methods to improve the understanding and management of fish populations, particularly in the presence of uncertainties and conservation risks. His research group specializes in developing and applying quantitative methods to improve fisheries management.

Dr. Brigitte Dorner has a M.Sc. in computing science at Simon Fraser University and a Ph.D. in Resource and Environmental Management from Simon Fraser University. She works as a post-doctoral fellow with Dr. Peterman on dynamics and management of Pacific salmon, including comparative analysis of time trends in salmon productivity. Her areas of specialty include salmon ecology, fisheries management, operating models, management strategy evaluation, landscape ecology, forest ecology, spatial statistics, spatial modeling, GIS and remote sensing.

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This report compares variation over time in productivity across Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye salmon stocks and describes the degree to which patterns have been similar across stocks within the Fraser system as well as outside the Fraser. Productivity refers to the number of adult returns produced per spawner (the fish that reproduce for a given sockeye population in a given year).

The researchers analyzed data from 64 wild sockeye salmon stocks, 19 of which were from the Fraser River. The remaining stocks were from Washington, Alaska and other parts of British Columbia. Data on both adult and juvenile abundances were analyzed.

There have been relatively large, rapid and consistent decreases in sockeye productivity over the last decade, not only in the Fraser system, but also in many other areas along the west coast of North America, including stocks from:

• Puget Sound (Lake Washington)

• Barkley Sound on the West Coast of Vancouver Island (Great Central and Sproat Lakes)

• Central Coast (Long Lake, Owikeno Lake, South Atnarko Lakes)

• North Coast of B.C. (Nass and Skeena)

• Southeast Alaska (McDonald, Redoubt, Chilkat)

• Yakutat (northern part of Southeast Alaska)(East Alsek, Klukshu, Italio)

For many stocks, declines in productivity started in the late 1980s or early 1990s, most likely due to reduced survival when sockeye are leaving freshwater or in the marine environment. The observation that declines in productivity have occurred over a much larger area than just the Fraser River system is a very important new finding.

Widespread declines in freshwater and/or marine survival could be due to a shared factor or factors, such as increases in predation, climate-driven increases in pathogen-induced mortality, or reduced food availability due to oceanographic changes. However, it is also possible that the observed similarities are merely coincidental and were caused by different mechanisms for different stocks. Further research will be needed to draw definitive conclusions about the relative role of large-scale versus more local causes.

Harrison Sockeye

The Harrison River sockeye population is the only stock in the Fraser River watershed for which productivity shows a clear increasing trend over the last two decades. Harrison sockeye have noticeable differences in their life history strategy from that of other sockeye stocks, and may offer clues about causes of the decline in those other populations. Specifically, Harrison sockeye:

• Migrate to sea in their first year of life as fry

• Rear for some time in the Fraser River estuary

• Remain in the Strait of Georgia later than other Fraser River sockeye

• Appear to migrate as juveniles around the southern end of Vancouver Island through the Strait of Juan de Fuca instead of through Johnstone Strait to the north

Because the southern fry-migration route is shared with Lake Washington sockeye (a stock that showed decreasing productivity over time), the reason for the Harrison’s trend is probably not attributable to its different migration route.

Are large numbers of spawners detrimental to productivity?

The researchers also investigated whether large numbers of spawners could be blamed for declines in productivity and returns of sockeye. The report concludes that this may have been the case for Quesnel sockeye, but not for any of the other Fraser sockeye stocks. As well, there is no evidence that increased spawner abundance is responsible for widespread declines in other sockeye populations.

Recommendations:

The researchers recommend the following actions:

• When investigating potential causes for declines in productivity, give priority to mechanisms that could have affected stocks over the broad geographic range across which declines were observed.

• Create an international, long-term working group to coordinate collection and analysis of a well-structured salmon productivity database.

• All salmon management and research agencies in Alaska, BC, and Washington need to strategically increase the number of sockeye stocks for which they annually estimate juvenile abundance.

• Conduct further research on salmon migration routes and timing during outmigration, as well as residence in the marine environment and stressors encountered during those life stages.

Project description: The researchers will prepare a habitat inventory for sockeye habitats in the Lower Fraser River (below Hope) and identify human activities that could affect them; analyze Lower Fraser River and Estuary development; describe human activities in the Strait of Georgia that could negatively affect sockeye salmon; evaluate protection strategies related to human development, and shipping; provide a synopsis of water quality conditions in the Strait of Georgia along the sockeye migration routes; and quantify sockeye food abundance in the Strait of Georgia, in relation to the potential for food competition and limitation.

Company: Golder Associates is a respected, employee-owned, global company providing consulting, design, and construction services in the areas of earth, environment, and the related areas of energy. From 160 offices worldwide, Golder’s nearly 7,000 employees work with clients to manage their environmental and engineering activities in a technically sound, economically viable, and socially responsible manner. The Canadian operation, Golder Associates Ltd., has over 2,600 employees in over 30 offices. In British Columbia, Golder Associates has 11 offices staffed by over 600 people. The project has been led by Dr. Mark Johannes and a team of specialists.

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The report reviews and summarizes potential impacts from human development from 1990 to 2010, and examines potential interactions between development and activities in the Lower Fraser River and Strait of Georgia and sockeye salmon habitats.

The Strait of Georgia, the lower Fraser River and watersheds are used by both juvenile and adult sockeye salmon as key habitats (spawning, incubation, rearing) and as migration corridors on their way to and from the North Pacific. Annual variation in the quality of the water and ecological conditions experienced in these habitats may have important links and potential effects on Fraser sockeye production. Juvenile sockeye first entering into the ocean are particularly sensitive to annual changes in water properties and levels of food, competitors and predators.

To examine possible outcomes of human activity, the researchers looked at the following factors and their potential interactions with sockeye habitats:

• Population (size, density)

• Land use (agriculture, forestry)

• Large industrial and infrastructure sites and projects

• Waste (liquid and solid waste)

• Shipping vessel traffic

• Lower Fraser River dredging and diking

• Strait of Georgia biological and physical water characteristics, including non-native or invasive species and human-derived contaminants

Human activities, habitat interactions

The population of the Lower Mainland and on southern Vancouver Island have increased 150 per cent in the last 20 years. Historically, many human activities may have had moderate to severe effects on sockeye habitats, but these impacts have not generally been observed during the last two decades. At the same time, programs have been in place to curb and manage human development and potential interactions and effects on sockeye habitats. The physical construction of development projects adjacent to sockeye habitats has also been regulated, and evidence shows that habitat conservation efforts have resulted in recent habitat gains in the Lower Fraser River and estuary. Importantly, impacts from project development have not been observed to coincide with the decline of the Fraser River sockeye.

There is, however, room for continued improvement in environmental management, protection and conservation of sockeye habitats.

Recommendations for habitat protection strategies

The habitat protection strategies used in the Lower Fraser River and Strait of Georgia are helping to support sockeye habitat conservation. The evidence shows that declines in Fraser River sockeye production from 1990 to 2009 are not a direct result of habitat impacts from project development.

However, the researchers found that habitat losses associated with project development did occur before the period covered by this report. Those losses were presumably the result of inadequate knowledge and experience in the design and construction of habitat compensation. It also indicates that historically the regulatory review process may not have been appropriately used.

As habitat compensation projects become more challenging and environments are more strongly influenced by changing climates and diminishing space in which to construct new habitats, the researchers recommend that habitat management should:

• Continue to maintain active review of habitat projects for current and future activities and human development

• Undertake further research in habitat ecology to evaluate alternative approaches to those prevailing today to adequately evaluate habitat compensation projects

• Create an integrated framework that brings together habitat science, management, inventory and reporting

Project 1 – Diseases and parasites – A veterinary scientist will take a broad view of sockeye diseases and parasites that span the life cycle from egg to adult, and will evaluate the full spectrum of diseases that occur at all life history stages.

Project 2 – Effects of contaminants on Fraser River sockeye salmon – The researcher will prepare an inventory of aquatic contaminants in the Fraser River in relation to the distribution of sockeye Conservation units. This will include an evaluation of pulp mill effluent contaminants, non-point source contaminants, endocrine disruptors and other contaminants, including sewage discharges from the Lower Mainland and other urban centres in the Fraser Watershed.

Project 3 – Fraser River freshwater ecology and status of sockeye salmon Conservation Units – The researcher will investigate several aspects of Fraser sockeye ecology, including the status of sockeye Conservation Units, a review of industrial and urban impacts on freshwater ecology and salmon life history, and an expert assessment of potential impacts from industrial and urban activities on Fraser River sockeye during the past 30 years.

Project 4 – Marine ecology – The researcher will review the marine ecology of Fraser River sockeye salmon to determine whether there are oceanographic factors that can explain the reduction in short-term and long-term Fraser sockeye productivity.

Project 5 – Impacts of salmon farms on Fraser River sockeye salmon – The researcher will evaluate the linkage between salmon farm operations and Fraser sockeye spawning returns – past, present, and future. This research will consider the impact on Fraser sockeye of sea lice exposure, farm wastes that affect benthic and pelagic habitat quality, Atlantic salmon escapees, and disease (including IHN).

Project 6 – Data synthesis and cumulative impact analysis – The researcher will synthesize information contained in the other contractors’ technical reports, to address cumulative effects and to evaluate possible causes for the decline of Fraser River sockeye salmon.

Project 7 – Fraser River sockeye fisheries and fisheries management – The researcher will investigate Fraser River sockeye fisheries harvesting (First Nations, commercial and recreational) and fisheries management (pre-season forecasting, in-season and post-season run-size abundance estimation methods and escapement enumeration methods), will analyze historical performance of the in-season assessment process, will evaluate the scientific basis for determining escapement targets, will evaluate the extent and impact of any over-harvesting since 1985, and will summarize the current conservation status of the Cultus Lake sockeye population.

Project 8 – Effects of predators on Fraser River sockeye salmon – The researcher will prepare a description of predation on sockeye salmon across the geographical range of the population, focusing on marine mammal predation on adults and smolts. The contractor will also evaluate freshwater fish predation on alevins, fry and smolts, and marine fish predation on smolts, sub-adults and adults.

Project 9 – Effects of climate change on Fraser River sockeye salmon: literature compilation and analysis – The researcher will compile and review all published evidence for climate change and climate-related effects on sockeye salmon in freshwater and marine habitats across all life stages, looking specifically for evidence of the effects of climate-related variables such as temperature, flow, salinity, pH, currents, primary productivity and species interactions on Fraser River sockeye survival, behavior and distribution.

Project 10 – Fraser River sockeye salmon production dynamics – data compilation, literature review, and reporting – The researcher will, to the extent possible, undertake basic statistical analyses of abundance and productivity by Conservation Unit; will review previous research and data on sockeye cyclic dominance, including Fraser and non-Fraser sockeye populations (including a review of the relationship between sockeye run failures and timing of sockeye cyclic dominant runs); and will summarize the frequency and effects of over-escapement on subsequent productivity and abundance of adult recruits.

Project 11 – Fraser River sockeye salmon: status of DFO science and management – The researcher will prepare an analysis, including an economic analysis, of DFO activities in Fraser River sockeye management since 1985; will present DFO science and research expenditures related to Fraser sockeye since 1985; and will undertake an analysis to evaluate DFO’s ability to meet its stated management objectives relative to Fraser sockeye since 1985.

Project 12 – Sockeye habitat analysis in the Lower Fraser River and the Strait of Georgia – The researcher will prepare a habitat inventory for sockeye habitats in the Lower Fraser River (below Hope) and identify human activities that could affect them; analyze Fraser Estuary development, including larger vessels, proposed expansion of the Vancouver International Airport Fuel Delivery Project, development of ports, bridges and damage from dredging; describe human activities in the Strait of Georgia that could negatively affect sockeye salmon; evaluate Coastal Zone protection strategies related to shoreline development, shipping, aquaculture and oil tanker traffic; provide a synopsis of water quality conditions in the Strait of Georgia along the sockeye migration routes; and quantify sockeye food abundance in the Strait of Georgia, in relation to the potential for food competition and limitation.

Evidentiary Hearings

• Starting on October 25, 2010, the commission is conducting evidentiary hearings regarding the issues that the commission is mandated to investigate. While the schedule of hearings is subject to change, hearings are currently scheduled to run Mondays through Thursdays and are from 10 am to 12:30 pm and 2 pm to 4 pm each day. The commission will conduct these hearings at the Federal Court, 801-701 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, BC. The hearing schedule is available on the commission’s website.

• Members of the media and the public are welcome, but are expected to conduct themselves in the hearing as they would in a court proceeding.

• No signs, banners or other postings are permitted in the courtroom, the hallways or other parts of the building, other than those permitted by the Commissioner.

• No food or beverages are permitted in the hearing room.

• No cell phones or cameras are to be used in the hearing room.

Witnesses

Depending on the issue under consideration at that point in the hearings, the commission may adopt a variety of formats for witnesses presenting information, including:

• An individual witness, including an expert, may testify under oath or on affirmation, and then be subject to cross-examination by counsel for participants.

• A group of witnesses, including experts, may give evidence as members of a panel. If a panel is called, the courtroom may be re-arranged to accommodate multiple witnesses.

• Technical and scientific witnesses may present evidence in panel discussions and forums at which they can exchange views and challenge one another’s findings and conclusions in an open, collaborative and exploratory setting.

Evidence

• In order to create a ‘paperless’ courtroom, the commission will make all exhibits available to the public on the commission’s website. The commission will also be projecting exhibits in the courtroom so the public may view the exhibit as its being delivered.

• Subject to the consent of participants, a summary of a person’s interview may be filed as an exhibit without that person testifying.

• Transcripts of each day’s hearings will be posted on the commission’s website, likely within 10-14 days.

Media

• A media room (room 806) will be set up next door to the courtroom as a basic workspace for media throughout the course of the hearings. No cameras or recording devices are to be operated in the hallways or other parts of the building, but interviews may be conducted in the media room.

• An audio feed will be supplied in the hearing room.

• No still cameras will be permitted in the courtroom.

• The Commissioner will permit a single video camera and operator to be positioned at the “audience right” side of the courtroom to record the hearings proceedings. A single line feed will be permitted and members of the media are expected to supply any equipment necessary and manage such a pool feed to ensure access to all interested members of the media.

• All media enquiries should be directed to Carla Shore, Director of Communications for the Cohen Commission, at or , or .

Backgrounder

Oct 25, 2023

Public forums and site visits:

From August to October 2010, the Cohen Commission of Inquiry held a series of public forums in communities along the Fraser River and the sockeye’s migratory route, where members of the public made presentations to the Commissioner. A list of communities the commission visited is available on the commission’s website. The Commissioner also held a series of site visits to allow the Commissioner to view aspects of the sockeye fishery first-hand.

Evidentiary hearings:

Evidentiary hearings begin Monday, October 25 and will run through mid- December, and continue in the new year. The Commissioner will begin by hearing evidence about perspectives on conservation, sustainability and stewardship, and submissions on Aboriginal law as it relates to the sockeye fishery. This will be followed by evidence on the management of the sockeye salmon fishery, including the organizational structure of the Department of Fisheries and Oceans, the Wild Salmon Policy, and the Pacific Salmon Commission, and evidence on possible scientific and technical causes for the decline in sockeye salmon in the Fraser River.

Hearings will run Mondays through Thursdays and are scheduled from 10 am to 12:30 pm and 2-4 pm each day. Hearings are open to the public and will be held at the Federal Court at 701 West Georgia Street, 8th floor. The evidentiary hearing schedule will be updated regularly on the commission’s website. Transcripts of each day’s hearings, along with evidence presented at the inquiry that day, will be posted on the commission’s website within about 10-14 days.

Interim report:

The Interim Report will set out the Commissioner’s preliminary views on and assessment of previous examinations, investigations and reports relevant to the commission. The commission will present its interim report to the Governor in Council by October 29, 2010.

Scientific and technical research:

The commission contracted with external scientific researchers to study a wide range of technical and scientific issues designed to address potential causes for the decline of Fraser River sockeye. Descriptions of these research projects are available on the commission’s website. In most cases, the researchers will provide the commission with a progress report by November 15, 2023 and a final report by January 31, 2011. These reports will be peer-reviewed with researchers and external reviewers providing critical analysis. The final reports will be made public. The researchers will summarize their findings and conclusions during the commission’s public evidentiary hearings, at which counsel for participants will have an opportunity to question the researchers and test their theories.

Backgrounder

Oct 25, 2023

The Fraser River provides habitat for the iconic sockeye salmon.

Eggs

The life cycle of a sockeye salmon begins in the fall when an adult female returns to her natal freshwater stream to lay up to 4,000 eggs in a gravel nest. Only 10 per cent of the deposited eggs survive through to the smolt stage. Of these, perhaps three to five per cent survive through to adulthood.

Alevins

In the late winter, the eggs hatch into alevins, which retain the yolk as a nutrient-rich sac that hangs below its body. They remain hidden in the gravel nest and feed from the nutrient-rich yolk sac until it is completely absorbed. Alevins are about one inch in length.

Fry

Once alevins leave their gravel beds, they grow to become fry which migrate into a freshwater lake.

Smolts

In their second year of life, fry become smolts. Smolts make their way downstream to the ocean and remain in the open ocean for two to three years.

Adults

Once the sockeye reach a mature state, they weigh around 2.2 kilograms on average and will follow their path up the mainstem river past Vancouver and into the various tributaries back to where they were born in order to spawn and complete their life cycle. Some populations like Early Stuart sockeye cover 1,100 kilometres to their headwater spawning areas.

There are hundreds of separate sockeye stocks within the Fraser River watershed.

Backgrounder

Oct 25, 2023

1	Government of Canada	Mitch Taylor
2	Province of British Columbia	Clifton Prowse
3	Pacific Salmon Commission	John Hunter – Hunter Litigation
4	BC Public Service Alliance of Canada Union of Environment Workers BC	Chris Buchanan – Hastings Law Corporation
5	Rio Tinto Alcan Inc.	David Bursey – Bull Housser & Tupper
6	BC Salmon Farmers’ Association	Alan Blair – Gowlings Lafleur
7	Seafood Producers Association of BC	Mike Walden – Walden & Company
8	Aquaculture Coalition: Alexandra Morton Raincoast Research Society Pacific Coast Wild Salmon Society	Gregory McDade – Ratcliff & Company
9	Conservation Coalition: Coastal Alliance for Aquaculture Reform Fraser Riverkeeper Society Georgia Strait Alliance Raincoast Conservation Foundation Watershed Watch Salmon Society Mr. Otto Langer David Suzuki Foundation	Tim Leadem – Ecojustice
10	Area D Salmon Gillnet Association Area B Harvest Committee (Seine)	Don Rosenbloom – Rosenbloom Aldridge
11	Southern Area E Gillnetters Association BC Fisheries Survival Coalition	David Butcher – Wilson Buck Butcher
12	West Coast Trollers Area G Association United Fishermen and Allied Workers’ Union	Christopher Harvey – Mackenzie Fujisawa
13	BC Wildlife Federation BC Federation of Drift Fishers	Keith Lowes – Keith Lowes
14	Maa-nulth Treaty Society Tsawwassen First Nation Musqueam First Nation	Kevin Lee – Ratcliff & Company
15	Western Central Coast Salish First Nations: Cowichan Tribes Chemainus First Nation Hwlitsum First Nation Penelakut Tribe Te’mexw Treaty Association Other Douglas Treaty First Nations who applied together (the Snuneymuxw, Tsartlip and Tsawout)	David Robbins – Woodward & Company
16	First Nations Coalition: First Nations Fisheries Council Aboriginal Caucus of the Fraser River Aboriginal Fisheries Secretariat Fraser Valley Aboriginal Fisheries Society Northern Shuswap Tribal Council Chehalis Indian Band Secwepemc Fisheries Commission of the Shuswap Nation Tribal Council Upper Fraser Fisheries Conservation Alliance Adams Lake Indian Band Carrier Sekani Tribal Council Council of Haida Nation	Brenda Gaertner – Mandell Pinder
17	Métis Nation British Columbia	Joseph Gereluk – Joseph Geruluk Law Corp.
18	Sto:lo Tribal Council Cheam Indian Band	Tim Dickson – Farris, Vaughn, Wills & Murphy
19	Laich-kwil-tach Treaty Society Chief Harold Sewid Aboriginal Aquaculture Association	Allan Donovan – Donovan & Company
20	Musgamagw Tsawataineuk Tribal Council	Krista Robertson – Robertson Law
21	Heiltsuk Tribal Council	Lisa Fong – Ng Ariss Fong

What is an application?

A participant may apply to the Commissioner for an order or direction by delivering an application, together with all supporting materials required to allow for a full consideration of the application, including any necessary affidavits, to the commission. Participants can respond to the application where their grant of standing identifies them as having an interest in the subject matter of that application. Commission counsel may provide the Commissioner with any submissions or materials commission counsel deem relevant and necessary to the proper resolution of the application.

The Commissioner may make an order or direction based on the written material filed or, at his discretion, after hearing oral argument.

What is an application hearing?

When the Commissioner decides to hear oral arguments on an application, an application hearing is convened.

When will the Commissioner rule on an application?

Once the Commissioner has considered all issues related to an application, he will issue a ruling, which will be available at a later date on the commission’s website at www.cohencommision.ca.

Scientific research projects

The Cohen Commission has contracted with qualified independent experts to study a wide range of technical and scientific issues that may be associated with the decline of Fraser River sockeye salmon. Twelve research projects comprise the commission’s scientific program:

1. Diseases and Parasites

2. Water pollution

3. Freshwater ecology and impacts

4. Marine ecology

5. Salmon farms

6. Data synthesis and cumulative effects analysis

7. Fisheries harvesting and management

8. Effects of predators

9. Effects of climate change

10. Production dynamics

11. Status of DFO sockeye science and management

12. Habitat analysis in the Lower Fraser River and the Strait of Georgia

Details of these projects can be found at:

cohencommission.ca/en/TechnicalReports.php.

Selection and role of researchers

The researchers were chosen for their recognized expertise relevant to Fraser River sockeye salmon populations and ecosystems as well as their professional reputation and practical experience. The role of the researchers is to objectively assemble and integrate existing scientific knowledge in a format that can be shared with participants and the public. Preliminary analysis will form the initial platform for critical assessment and dialogue. Next, the researchers will propose hypotheses within their field of research as to potential causes for the decline of Fraser River sockeye salmon.

In most cases, the researchers will provide the commission with a progress report by November 15, 2023 and a final report by January 31, 2011. These reports will be peer-reviewed with researchers and external reviewers providing critical analysis. The final reports will be made public. The researchers will summarize their findings and conclusions during the commission’s public evidentiary hearings, at which counsel for participants will have an opportunity to question the researchers and test their theories.

The commission is satisfied that its processes, grounded in the rigours of the scientific method, peer review, transparency, scrutiny and critique, will provide the Commissioner with accurate and reliable information respecting the possible causes for the decline of Fraser River sockeye salmon.

Peer reviewers

Each research report will be reviewed by three peer reviewers, who assist the contractors with their reports by providing a challenge function and independently assessing whether the methodology, analysis and conclusions are logical and supported by references and data. The peer reviewers will identify alternative hypotheses if appropriate.

Peer reviewers will be selected based on their education, publications, expertise and availability. The commission also aims to select reviewers who will bring a broad range of backgrounds, expertise and perspectives to the peer review process.

For each project, a peer reviewer will provide a written summary of comments, which will be shared with participants and the public after it is provided to the commission. The reviews will be tabled as evidence in the hearings as an appendix to the report to which it pertains.

Other science-related witnesses

Counsel for participants can recommend that the commission call as witnesses other experts who may canvass additional observations or perspectives that ought to be considered, challenge any assumptions or interpretations made by contractors, or present an alternative hypothesis based on a different viewpoint or understanding of the issues, observations and experiments applicable to the field.